Will HDTV hasten the decline of over-the-air broadcasting

Network broadcasting has fallen behind cable tv in audience share. Broadcasters are supposed to switch over to HDTV by the end of 2006, but broadcasters saythey’re not ready and customers are confused.
Instead of switching over to broadcast HDTV, will customers just abandon broadcast for cable, DVD, and emerging internet video? Will the confusion about HDTV hasten the decline of on-air broadcast?
The recording industry switched from LPs to CDs to mp3s without the government having to pass a law. The wireless market is migrating from 802.11b to g, and may get to WIMAX without a federally mandated transition. The requirement for federally regulated standards for on-air broadcast formats seems like a competitive disadvantage for for on-air broadcasting.
File this under “insufficiently informed speculation” — I don’t know enough about this market to have a good opinion. I don’t watch much tv, so indifference to the glories of HDTV maybe clouding my judgement.

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